{"id":165,"date":"2012-01-01T10:00:32","date_gmt":"2012-01-01T10:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/?p=165"},"modified":"2022-02-20T01:01:11","modified_gmt":"2022-02-20T01:01:11","slug":"scoring-and-predicting-risk-preferences","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/scoring-and-predicting-risk-preferences\/","title":{"rendered":"Scoring and Predicting Risk Preferences"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This study presents a methodology to determine risk scores of individuals, for a given financial risk preference survey. To this end, we use a regression-based iterative algorithm to determine the weights for survey questions in the scoring process. Next, we generate classification models to classify individuals into risk-averse and risk-seeking categories, using a subset of survey questions. We illustrate the methodology through a sample survey with 656 respondents. We find that the demographic (indirect) questions can be almost as successful as risk-related (direct) questions in predicting risk preference classes of respondents. Using a decision-tree based classification model, we discuss how one can generate actionable business rules based on the findings.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ertek, G., Kaya, M., Kefeli, C., Onur, \u00d6., Uzer, K. (2012) \u201cScoring and predicting risk preferences\u201d in Behavior Computing: Modeling, Analysis, Mining and Decision. Eds: Longbing Cao, Philip S. Yu. Springer.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Note: This is the final draft version of this paper. Please cite this paper (or this final draft) as above. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Download<\/em><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/ftp\/papers\/2012\/ertek_et_al_Risk_Book_Chapter_LNCS.pdf\">Scoring and Predicting Risk Preferences<\/a><br \/>\n[su_spoiler title=&#8221;view PDF&#8221; style=&#8221;fancy&#8221; icon=&#8221;caret&#8221;][pdfviewer width=&#8221;600px&#8221; height=&#8221;849px&#8221; beta=&#8221;true\/false&#8221;]https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ertek_et_al_Risk_Book_Chapter_LNCS.pdf[\/pdfviewer][\/su_spoiler]<\/p>\n<p><em>Download<\/em><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/03.pdf\">Supplementary Document for \u201cScoring and Predicting Risk Preferences\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Dr. G\u00fcrdal Ertek recommends the following related books:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/amzn.to\/2DkBJNz\"><em>Behavior Computing: Modeling, Analysis, Mining and Decision 2012th Edition<\/em><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/amzn.to\/2FTcNP1\"><em>Data Mining Techniques: For Marketing, Sales, and Customer Relationship Management Paperback \u2013 April 12, 2011<\/em><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This study presents a methodology to determine risk scores of individuals, for a given financial risk preference survey. To this end, we use a regression-based iterative algorithm to determine the weights for survey questions in the scoring process. Next, we generate classification models to classify individuals into risk-averse and risk-seeking categories, using a subset of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":55,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=165"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/165\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":362,"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/165\/revisions\/362"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ertekprojects.com\/gurdal-ertek-publications\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}